Boogster’s Blog

It’s really Thursday 1am, since I just got back, but F me, I’m tired and I feel miserable.  “Work” sucked.  Woke up at 6:20am.  Got to work at 9am.  Chit chatted with a bunch of my old coworkers for a little while, then got down to business for about 10 hours.  Went to my indoor soccer game at 10:40pm.  And now I’m back.  I just felt a little vomit come up.  Puke.  It’s only day 1, so I’m going to refrain from the comments about “work” until I am in a better state.  Shower, sleep, rinse, repeat.  I don’t know how I did it for 6 years.  Reminds me of Dave Matthews Band song Ants Marching:

He wakes up in the morning
Does his teeth bite to eat and he’s rolling
Never changes a thing
The week ends the week begins

I never thought that I’d look so forward to a vacation day on Friday. Hah. WTF! I’m tired, I’m groggy, I need my bed now. BTW…go SMN. The only bright spot to my day.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Google Adsense: +$13.14
• Text Link Ads: +$111.09
• Full Tilt Poker: +$50.00

I’m probably averaging about $500/month in profits on advertising alone across this blog, boogster.blogspot.com, and the text link/banner advertising on boogster.com. Anything that I make from advertising is just gravy anyways, so it’s actually pretty nice to make anything from these advertisements. It’s like finding five $100 bills stuffed in the back pocket of my jeans every month.

My old coworker sent me a text message on Friday afternoon asking me if I wanted a temporary position doing Web Development work.  $60/hour for 8 weeks…up to 10 hours/day.  They’ve come to me a few times before asking me if I wanted to go back to the dark side (the working world) and I’ve always declined.  This time he actually threw a number at me, so I started doing some number chugging…$60/hour times 10 hours/day times 5 days/week times 8 weeks = $24,000 for eight weeks of work.  Pre-tax.

That number sparked my interest, so I called him up on Sunday night.  He gave me the lowdown on the position and what he knew about it.  He told me to call another old coworker of mine for some more information.  So I talked to another old coworker and basically, it’s a web development support position.  Temporary.  For a contract that’s winding down.

The work shouldn’t be too hard, but it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve last worked a desk job doing IT work.  Yeah, almost 3 years of sitting on my ass, answering emails, dealing with affiliate managers on the phone, and occasionally working on the website (boogster.com).  Now that I’ve switched from day trading to swing trading, I’ve really been sitting on my ass even more, bored out of my mind, on a lot of days, so I thought about the pros and cons of this opportunity.  Pretty good money, temporary, and work that I probably wouldn’t mind doing.  And it’ll be something new to break the monotony of the past few years.  I don’t really need the money, but it definitely wouldn’t hurt either.  The drawbacks would be no golf during the week for 8 weeks, probably sitting in a cubicle for 8 to 10 hours a day…every day…and having to deal with all of the crap that comes my way.

I told them that I’d get back to them within an hour, so I basically had about an hour to decide.  I talked to a few people and they all seemed to think that it was a good idea.  I ended up agreeing to the 8-week stint.  Shortly after, I went to play golf at Laurel Hill.  While on the golf course, I definitely started having second thoughts.  I hope none of my old coworkers are reading this blog, but just the thought of putting on khakis and a polo shirt every day and sitting in a cubicle working on IT stuff, and not being able to play golf…or take a shit in my own bathroom, just doesn’t seem that exciting to me.  I fought so long to get out of the “suit” world and now, just like that, I’m back in again.  Dagger.

You might say, how about the money at the end?  Well, it’ll be good to pocket that change (I’m not gonna lie), but I’m having a hard time convincing myself whether it’ll be worth it or not.  My parents just closed on a vacation condo in Atlantic City (Brigantine), so I have a place to stay whenever I want and before this opportunity came up, I was thinking about going up to AC to play poker for a month.  I guess I can still do it, but it’ll have to wait until after the 8-week contract now.  I kind feel like a gift was handed to me with this job opportunity and if I don’t take it, then it’ll be stupid on my part.  And that’s pretty much what everybody has been telling me.  I mean, where else can I make $24k guaranteed in 8 weeks?

I was supposed to start today, but they’re still working on some paper work.  Even though I thought about backing out, I’m not gonna do it because I worked with these guys for 6 years in the past and I’ve already committed.  I guess after this thing ends, I will know whether it was worth it or not.  Who knows, 8 weeks from now, I might look back and say that this was the best decision I’ve ever made.  I mean, every experience that I’ve encountered in my life has lead me to where I’m at now.  Good and/or bad.  This experience will just be another marker in the timeline of my life.  I’m prepared for whatever comes ahead.

I guess within the next few days (whenever I start), I’ll be blogging about going back into the working world for the first time in almost three years.  F me…that is scary.  I’m gonna try my hardest not to tell anyone that I’ll be working with, about this blog or my website.  Just because I know that I will most likely be busting on them.  Hah.

Alright…onto a little market related shit.  I sold 200 shares of my SMN this morning at $29.70 for +$260 or so.  These were the remaining 200 shares after my 3 options were excercised.  I’m still holding 1000 shares at $33.40.  I also sold 500 shares of DUG at $26.65 for -$300 or something like that.  Still holding 500 shares.  I sold half of my DUG because it’s been grinding at this level for over 5 weeks now.  If we go lower, I will buy back lower.  If we go higher, then so be it…I’ll be positioned with my 500 shares.  I just don’t want to risk of losing another few points on this puppy with a thousand shares.  Now, I am comfortable with whatever happens.  I’m prepared to hold.

I’ve pretty much unwound most of my positions over the past few weeks.  A lot of cash on the sidelines now…just waiting patiently.  I really don’t see anything compelling at the moment, so I’ll just wait it out.

That’s about it for now.  I’m gonna post my June blog earnings here in a second.  Also, I’ve updated my “Total Earnings” spreadsheet, which includes the Black Wednesday numbers.  I’ve actually had it up for a few weeks now.  I added another account of mine, which kind of pads the numbers. :)  After this month, I should be in the positive for the year, I think.  Uhh…maybe not.  I have to back and rework the numbers for May and June.

Time to go play some golf at Reston National.  Maybe the last time that I play for 8 weeks.  F me.

Here are the details:

• Where: Bodoglife.com
• Time: Saturday, June 28th @ 4:35PM EST
• Buy-in: $10 + $1 NL Hold’em
• Prize Pool: All Buy-ins + 3 free seats to the $100,000 guaranteed on Sunday at 4PM EST ($109 value)
• Password: boogst100k

Basically, our Bodog account rep is adding $327 ($109 x 3) to the prize pool in the form of tournaments credits to the $100k guaranteed on Sunday.

Last time, we only had 14 players, so chances were pretty good of taking home a $109 tournament credit.  That’ll give you an entry into the big overlay Sunday $100k guaranteed.  Winner of that tournament gets about $30,000 to $40,000.

Some dude came to my condo to replace my balcony door this morning. He had one of those glass eyes. F me, but I didn’t know which eyeball to look at when I was talking to him. Confused the shit out of me. I swear, I was trying to figure out which eyeball was the real one, so I did some sharp movements from one side to the other (bob and weave), just to see which eyeball moved and which one didn’t. I’m pretty sure that it was the left one, but I tell you, his doctor did one hell of a job. Don’t think I’ve ever seen an eyeball that looked so good. Dude needs to wear an eye patch or something to make things easier though. Anyways, I ended up talking to his forehead. Man, I am so going to hell for cracking on someone’s glass eye…SO GOING TO HELL. I can’t help it though.

So, the markets are going lower today. Looks like the basic materials stocks have rebounded pretty sharply since this morning’s selloff. I slept on MON hitting its 61.8% retracement.

I may regret not taking a small loss on this puppy this morning.  If we get another selloff near the close, I will probably get the F out.  And MOS…this pos never wants to go down.  I really should just dump these two losers and let my SMN do its work.

You know, I’m not going to do anything today.  Just gonna let things play out for now.

Playing some golf at Whiskey Creek tomorrow.  Should be a good time.  Whiskey Creek is probably one of nicest courses that I’ve played at.  I’ve been swinging pretty good too, so let’s hope that I can win some money tomorrow.  Just gotta get my putting in order.

Probably going to be heading up AC in a few weeks here.  Haven’t played some live action poker in a long while.  I guess it’s because there’s just so much to do during the spring/summer months.  Don’t forget that there’s another Bodog tourney tomorrow afternoon at 4:35pm.  Shite…just realized that I’ll be playing golf.  Well, better chance for you donkeys who will be playing, since I won’t be in the tourney.  4:35pm EDT.  Look for “Boogster’s 100k Qualifier”.  Password is “boogst100k”.  Three $109 tournament tickets will be added to the prize pool.  Good luck.  Have a good weekend.  Chipotle’s is calling my name.

The more and more that I sit here and watch the action, the more and more I want to get out of all of my remaining positions and go all cash, but I know that it’s not the right time yet. I know it. Maybe tomorrow.

I’ve been looking at the charts of MOS and MON, looking for an exit strategy. Their chart patterns look very similar to an oldie copper stock, PD. MOS looks like a beast of a stock, which could potentially surge higher…much higher, so I’ll be exiting out of that one before MON. I’ve only got 50 shares of each at an average of $110.38 for MOS and $113.14 for MON. Down $1,590 and $758 respectively. You see how I am quick to sell my winners and slow to sell my losers? Terrible strategy.

Anyways, I’m gonna go play some golf before I do something that I really didn’t intend to do. This market goes lower tomorrow.

Wow.  I just said last week that I thought we were going to fall faster, harder, and longer than I’d expect.  And if I were to sell (or cover), it’d almost certainly be at the wrong time.  Yet I did it anyways.  After taking a shilacking, intra-day yesterday, SKF, SRS, and FXP have all gone back up to their upper ranges.  Now, I’m not sure whether to wait or to get back in.  From past experience, these inverse ETFs should linger up here for a few days, taunting the dumbasses (like me) who sold too early.  Eventually, the dumbasses will want to get back in, for fear of missing the bigger drop, then, we will bounce.

I imagine that we have much further down to go.  Since that is the absolute path of least resistance.  Looking at the chart of DIA, the 161.8% retracement to the downside looks like a good target.  DIA is trading at $116.04 x $116.05 right now.  The 161.8% retracement is at $106.52.  Anybody brave enough to short here?  One caveat is that we’re up against the 200 SMA and the bottom range of the multi-month trading range.  Also, the McClellan Oscillator will be sub -200 after today’s close.

Yesterday, I dumped 100 shares of SMN at $29.  Still holding 1200 shares from the $33 range.  I just bought back 300 shares of DUG at $28.24.  Holding 1000 shares now from $27 and change.  Nothing against The Fly, but he’s been accumlating Oil stocks over the past few weeks and they haven’t really gone anywhere.  Usually, when this happens, a pummelling is coming.  That and I’m expecting DUG to go back up to the $42 area over the next few weeks.  Much respect to The Fly, but I hope he’s wrong on his oil longs.

Alright…time to get some grub.  The markets are in pummelling mode today.  We’re at the daily S4, which we haven’t seen in a long long while.  If we hit S5, it may be time for code red.  Go DUG!  Go SMN.

In honor of the last Euro 2008 semi-finals today at 2:45pm, I’ll leave you guys with a cool soccer video:

DUG and SMN are both up 3% this morning…lovely.  MOS and MON are down…lovely.  And then all of the inverse ETFs that I sold yesterday and Friday are down.  Nice.  For DUG and SMN, I’m hoping that this is the start of the takeoff that I’ve been expecting.  For SMN, I’ve been holding for a at least a few months already and for DUG, it’s been at least 2-3 weeks.  It’s almost a lock that I’m off on my entries and exits by a few weeks.  Always.  I have a problem with waiting for confirmation, which is why swing trading is a better fit for me.

I’m gonna try not to panic sell this time and just let my plays do their work.  I’m trigger happy when it comes to taking profits, but stubborn when it comes to taking losses.  The two worst qualities of a good trader.  And the two most common.    I think that it may be best if I just get outta here and check the markets after the market close.  After the FOMC announcement.  Otherwise, I’ll probably do something that I didn’t really intend to do.

I think you’d kind of have to be stupid to be shorting the market indices here because the McClellan Oscillator closed at -243 yesterday.  Historically speaking, we will go higher from here.  For how long, no one knows, but definitely higher.  Maybe just a dead cat bounce, but the keyword is “bounce”.  For me, I’m just gonna wait for the next signal to put my money to work again.  I’m looking at SKF near $112, FXP near $72 - $75, and SRS near $87 to $90.  Those are just the key retracement levels on those stocks.  I really like the charts of these puppies for the intermediate term.  For the inverse index ETFs, I like QID the best, on the long side.  Believe it or not, the Qs are still in a longer term “Stage 1″ pattern…on the monthly chart.  It’s gonna take a few more years for the Qs to break out of this pattern.

I also have a few other ideas on where to put my money to work.  Gold and Silver are the first two things   that pop up in my mind.  For silver, we are nearing the ambush zone, so I may look to pick up a few shares of SLV.

Enough market talk.  I’m just excited today because things are going my way, which probably means that after the FOMC announcement, everything that is going my way right now will be dunzo after the announcement.  Hah.  We’ll see.  Always happens though.

Alright, I gotta do some real work today (boogster.com).  Oh yeah, we’re running another tourney at bodog this Saturday at 4:35pm.  $327 will be added to the prize pool.  The tournament has already been setup…just look for the “Boogster’s $100k”.  The password is boogst100k.  I saw this weekend that CardPlayer.com is actually running a similar tournament with 5 guaranteed tournament tickets.  I was surprised to see that they only had 51 player totals…such a big site like that.  It makes me feel a little better that we only got 16 and 14 players for our first two tournaments.  I guess it’s not that easy finding players for these tourneys.  Not worth the time, I guess.  Anyways, don’t sleep on the tourney this Saturday.

I knew it.  So, this is it.  We’ve hit our first support levels.  The transportation index (IYT) is at its 38.2% retracement level.  The McClellan Oscillator is sub -200.  TWM has hit its 38.2% retracement level.  I’m not saying that we’re done to the downside, but definitely a short term bounce is imminent.  All signs point to it.

So, let’s see what I missed out on.  SKF is up 10 points from when I sold.  FXP is up 3 points.  SRS is up about 8 points on half of what I sold.  TWM is up 3 points.  Dagger.  I told myself not to panic sell, but I did it anyways…knowing that I was panic selling.  What a bitch.

Alright, so I want to get out of the rest of my SRS here.  $107 is my exit target, but I’m content with giving up a few points, so I’ll probably try to sell anywhere above $103.  SKF has busted right through it’s 61.8% retracement level, and the chart looks ridiculously good.  Buy on any pullbacks.  Anything sub-$112 would be golden.

I just sold the rest of my SRS at $101.34.    Gonna look for a pullback and reload, hopefully at a lower price.

Still holding DUG, SMN, SIBE, MOS, MON, and TD.  That’s about it.  I’m thinking about just dumping my TD because it’s such a slow mover and definitely not my style at all.  I only bought it because I liked the pretty colors of Commerce Bank.  SIBE, I am hoping will make a run before the Affliction card on July 19th.  SIBE is the parent company of M-1 Global, which is copromoting that Affliction card.  I believe it’s the only publicly traded MMA stock, with the exception of IFL.  If this MMA thing takes off, I expect SIBE to be the first to fly.  I’ve got 5500 shares.  Gonna hold until we fly.

I’m mostly cash now.  Not exactly sure what I’m gonna do with all of this cash, but I’ll find somewhere to put it to work.  I’m expecting this bounce to last a week or two, so I’m gonna try to be patient with my money.

I feel like I have a ton of things to do today, but in reality, it’s just another day.  Hah.  Maybe I’m forgetting something.  Definitely forgetting something.  First things first.  Lunch time.

I found John Daly’s secret to longer drives:

A couple of years back, a fan approached John Daly and asked how to get a little extra length off the tee.  “Here’s what you do,” Daly said.  “When you tee the ball up, tilt the tee toward the target as far as you can without the ball falling off.”  The guy was surprised.  I’ve never heard that one before.  How much distance will that get me?”  Replied Daly, “Oh, about an inch.”

Read that in Golf Magazine.  Pretty funny.

So, I sold out of most of my short positions on Friday.  It’s almost a lock that we go lower from here.  Much lower.  The only thing that concerns me is that the McClellan Oscillator is making a higher low, while the price action is making a lower low, which is typically indicative of a intermediate term bottom (bullish divergence).  The MO also closed at -196 on Friday.  Take a look at this chart:

Although, the verdict is not quite out yet because the price action hasn’t turned around.  So, we could actually make a lower low.  Anyways, i’m not too concerned.  If anything, I will probably get into some inverse index ETFs (TWM, QID, DXD).  Probably the best way to play these markets right now.

So, I’m all out of my FXP, SKF, and half of my SRS.  Also, my 3 remaining SMN June $25 calls were exercised, so now I have a total of 1300 shares of SMN.  I’m probably gonna dump these 300 shares of SMN some time today or tomorrow.

Don’t sleep on the fact that we have the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, then the GDP and jobless claims on Thursday.  All three of these numbers will move the markets BIG.  Lock.  Round and round we go, whichever way we go, nobody knows.

I’m itching to play some golf today.  I don’t feel like driving anywhere to play, so I’m just gonna hit up East Po to get some practice in.  I’m out.

So, the YM hit my 127.2% extension target at 11918.  I just lightened my load on the short side, which I may seriously regret over the next few weeks.  Out all of my TWM for +$860.  Out FXP for +$1,200 or so.  I can’t believe that I slept on SRS though.  I was gonna hit the sell button at $95 and change, but held off for a minute and it’s down 2 points from its highs already.  Sucks.  I may still dump half here soon though.

Usually, when I get into these selling frenzies and I liquidate a ton of my positions on the same day, we’re almost always about 2-3 days away from an actual bottom, so if history repeats itself, we should have further downside action left, and you should be thinking about shorting the market here.  As a matter of fact, I’m gonna think about reentering some Index ETF shorts before the close.

I felt like I just panic sold.  We’re definitely going lower.  That’s a LOCK.  And if we go down, it’ll most likely be fast, furious, and BIG.  I think it may be best if I just go play some golf today and not do anything else stupid.  Definitely gonna be checking the markets near closing time on money Treo 700w on the golf course.  Ideally, I’d like to get into some index inverse ETFs before the close.  Hopefully, we won’t be down another 500 ticks by then…I’ll be happy even if we are, though…

Remember, boogster.com is hosting another poker tourney at Bodog this weekend.  $327 will be added to the prize pool in the form of $100 + $9 tournament tickets to Bodog’s Sunday $100k Guaranteed.  I wanna win one of those things so badly.  I’ll definitely be playing tomorrow.  Check back here tonight or tomorrow for the tournament password.

GOTTA GO…tee time in 50 minutes…I’m late…

Woke up at 6:30am.  Went to Blue Ridge Shadows and played 36 holes.  Beautiful course, but it took me an hour and twenty minutes to get there.  Ending up shooting 109 and 105 from the blues.  My golf game is hurt-ing.  Seriously, I should be able to break 100 consistently by now.  Back to the range I guess.  Anyways, I’m beat.

BTW…I sold all of my SKF yesterday around $130 for +$1,280 or so.  It was nice to see MOS receive a beatdown today…-$9.  It was also nice to see DUG close strong.  Patience and I shall be rewarded.  Hopefully.

Umm yeah…I’m tired as balls.  Bed time.

Based on the current chart pattern, we should go all the way down to the 161.8% retracement level, which would be near 11918 on the YM.  That’s about 200 ticks below the current level.  And we should fall fast and hard.  If I were brave, I would short the YM here.  This is as good of a lock that I’ve seen in a while.  What happens after we hit the 161.8% is still up in the air, but it starts with a bounce.

Here are some charts.  SNDK is the type of pattern that the YM is currently following:

Now, the YM on a 229 tick chart:

I know that the pattern may not look exactly the same, but to me they represent the same pattern.  Call it what you want.

I’ve got sell orders in on TWM, SKF, and SRS, but I’m going to wait until the YM hits my target levels before exiting.  I have ideas on where I’d like to sell all of these positions though.  TWM, I’d like to sell around $77.50 which is the 38.2% retracement.

SRS, I’d like to sell around $107, which is also the 38.2% retracement level.

SKF, I am tempted to sell right here, but I still want to see the YM at 11918 before I dump.  Maybe by the end of today or tomorrow morning.  The 61.8% retracement level is pretty strong and we should get a retracement back to the 38.2% before going higher.  Definitely going higher though.  I love this chart.

So, that’s about it.  Like usual, I am sitting on my losers and selling my winners.  Hah.  Go figure.  Nothing would please me more than a nice pummelling of MOS and MON.  I need a hefty pummelling.

We have two more games today in Euro 2008 to determine who moves on in group D.  Then, the quarter finals start tomorrow.  Portugal vs. Germany should be ridiculous.

Alright, time to sit back, relax and wait for the YM to hit my target.  Then, I will start liquidating…

Remember that cafe that I talked about a few months ago…the one where I was kicked out of because I didn’t buy anything. Well, those bitches are going out of business.  F’in serves them right.  Poorly run businesses should be sent to the grave, in my opinion.  I hope I see that douchebag who told me to leave working at a McDonalds or something.  I would throw a frie in his face.  Douchebag.

So, I’m trying to tell myself to be patient here.  As much as I would like the market to tank overnight, it just doesn’t work like that.  After seeing The Fly sell out of most of his short positions, I was pretty close to dumping them myself, but I’m not gonna do it.  Sit tight and let them play out. I just gotta keep reminding myself of that.

SMN, MON, and MOS…I’m still holding tight on these.  SMN is actually in jeopardy of closing below it’s 61.8% retracement level, although, I’d be very surprised if it closed below $27.38 on Friday.  If that happens, then it could be ugly.  I think the recent market action is just a “sweep the legs” type action though.  If we do close below $27.38 on Friday, then I may have to go to Plan B.  Don’t ask me what that is.

Looks like the bears are getting some relief today.  SKF is back to $125 and FXP and SRS are holding tight.    I’m not gonna do anything.  Go figure.

Time to get some grub and head up to Penderbrook.

BTW…we’re running another $10 + $1 tourney this Saturday at Bodog.  Top 3 finishers get $100 + $9 tourney entries into the Sunday $100k guaranteed.  We’re trying to make this tournament a weekly thing, so if you missed the last two, don’t sleep on the upcoming ones.